CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-12-31T14:00ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43691/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1. Partial halo CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1. It is associated with an M7.1 flare from AR 14324 (N24E20) peaking at 2025-12-31T13:51Z. Eruption with EUV wave, dimming, opening field lines, and post eruptive arcades are best seen in SDO AIA 193 imagery. The eruption is also visible near the east limb as seen from STEREO A EUV imagery. This CME may have arrived at L1 around mid-day on 2026-01-02 and could be embedded within a broad high speed stream signature with increasing wind speeds and a few magnetic field enhancements occurring during the second half of 2026-01-02 as seen in DSCOVR and ACE data, but confidence is low and the solar wind signature is not definitive of an coronal mass ejection arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-03T03:10Z (-10.54h, +6.93h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
*** CCOR1 *** Time of Launch: 2025/12/31 13:50Z Plane of Sky 1: 18:30Z; 20.0Rsun; NNE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 19:50Z; 20.0Rsun; SSW Direction POS Difference: 1:20 POS Midpoint: 19:10Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:20 Numeric View/Impact Type: +2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.5 Travel Time: ~11.5 * 5:20 = 61:20 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-03T03:10Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 75% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj Forecast Creation Time: 2025/12/31 18:58ZLead Time: 56.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-12-31T19:03Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy